Machine Learning · Climate Science · Forecasting

Artur
Stachnik

I build production ML systems at the intersection of climate science and operational forecasting.

01

About

Machine Learning engineer and PhD researcher with five-plus years building production-grade ML across academia, public sector and industry.

I'm currently completing my PhD in Climate Science & Machine Learning at Universidad Complutense de Madrid as an FPI Fellow (Spanish State Research Agency; sub-5% national acceptance rate, defending Q1 2028), supervised by Prof. Javier Martín-Chivelet and Dr. Mario Morellón.

My work focuses on turning complex, high-volume environmental data into operational decisions — from karst-water forecasting in Switzerland to atmospheric attribution across southwestern Europe. Recently designed Tempestas, an original probabilistic deep learning framework, during a six-month research stay at the University of Michigan.

Lead author on four peer-reviewed manuscripts at Q1 climate journals (Weather and Climate Dynamics, Global and Planetary Change); regular presenter at EGU, EMS and Karst Records. Currently serving as Expert Reviewer for the IPCC AR7 Working Group I First Order Draft (Chapter 6), through the Early Career Researcher Group Review programme.

Outside the lab, a speleologist for over a decade — patience, resilience, and a deep appreciation for how complex natural systems actually behave.

02

Featured Work

A selection of projects spanning operational ML, probabilistic deep learning and applied climate science.

Operational ML · Deployed

Karst Water Forecasting · SISKA

A three-stage XGBoost cascade producing hourly forecasts at nine lead times (one hour to seven-day horizon) on 30+ years of operational data. Real-time deployment integrates ECMWF and ICON ensemble forcing with regime-dependent bias correction.

318,968 hourly observations · 70+ engineered features · Optuna TPE across leave-one-year-out CV · Manuscript in preparation for a Q1 hydrology journal.

  • XGBoost
  • Optuna
  • ECMWF / ICON
  • Operational Forecasting
Industry Demo · Open Source

Energy-Mix Optimizer

Predicts solar and wind power output, forecasts electricity demand, and recommends the optimal 24-hour generation mix by combining ML forecasting with linear optimisation.

Data integration from Red Eléctrica de España, OMIE and Copernicus ERA5 · Streamlit dashboard for interactive exploration.

  • XGBoost
  • SciPy
  • Streamlit
  • Energy Systems
View repository →
Paper-companion Code · Zenodo DOI

Iberia Rainfall Attribution

Machine-learning attribution of synoptic-scale climate variability (NAO vs. WeMO) on rainfall isotopic composition in southeastern Iberia, combining Random Forest, SHAP and HYSPLIT trajectory clustering.

Companion code to a manuscript under peer review at Weather and Climate Dynamics. Archived on Zenodo (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19075045).

  • Random Forest
  • SHAP
  • HYSPLIT
  • Hydroclimate
Zenodo record →
Paper-companion Code · Zenodo DOI

ERA5 Isotope ML

A reproducible Random Forest framework quantifying the coupling between large-scale atmospheric circulation (ERA5, IsoGSM, NAO, WeMO) and rainfall δ¹⁸O across southwestern Europe.

Companion code to a manuscript under peer review at Global and Planetary Change (Elsevier). Archived on Zenodo (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18801400).

  • Random Forest
  • ERA5
  • Copernicus CDS
  • Climate Attribution
Zenodo record →
03

Stack

Tools I reach for on a daily basis.

ML & Modeling

  • Python
  • PyTorch
  • XGBoost
  • scikit-learn
  • Random Forest
  • SHAP
  • Optuna

Data & Engineering

  • pandas · NumPy
  • xarray
  • SQL
  • NetCDF / HDF5
  • Docker
  • Git
  • HPC · SLURM

Geospatial

  • QGIS
  • ArcGIS
  • rasterio
  • cartopy
  • Leapfrog Geo

Climate & Domain

  • ERA5 · Copernicus CDS
  • ECMWF · ICON
  • GNIP
  • HYSPLIT
  • IsoGSM
04

Selected Research

Peer-reviewed publications and conference contributions.

  1. 2026 · Preprint · Under review

    Influence of synoptic patterns (NAO vs. WeMO) on rainfall isotopic composition in SE Iberia: a machine learning approach

    EGUsphere preprint · Under review at Weather and Climate Dynamics (Q1)

    Random Forest · SHAP · HYSPLIT trajectory clustering

  2. 2026 · Under review

    Machine learning discerns large-scale atmospheric variability in rainfall δ¹⁸O over southwestern Europe

    Under review at Global and Planetary Change (Q1, Elsevier)

    Random Forest · Permutation feature importance · ERA5 · IsoGSM

  3. 2025 · Conference

    Machine Learning and AI approaches to address limitations in modelling rainfall oxygen stable isotopes for paleoclimate reconstructions

    KR10, South Africa

  4. 2024 · Conference

    Patterns of precipitation δ¹⁸O through the Iberian Peninsula: machine learning dynamic modeling for climate proxy calibration

    European Meteorological Society (EMS) Annual Meeting

  5. 2024 · Conference

    Integrating lacustrine and coastal sediment records of environmental change in Northern Spain during the Anthropocene

    European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly

  6. 2023 · Conference

    Modeling the response of cave and lake systems in the northern Iberian Peninsula to climate change and human activity

    S4 Speleothem Summer School, São Paulo

05

Teaching & Supervision

Master's research co-supervision and support lectureships at Universidad Complutense de Madrid.

Master's Thesis · Co-supervision · 2025 / 26

Machine learning approaches to climate variability in the northern Iberian Peninsula

MSc in Environmental Geology · Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Support lectureships

06

Beyond

S4 Summer School — Speleothem Science

Member of the organizing committee of the S4 Summer School (Morocco, 2025), a multi-day international event connecting senior researchers with early-career scientists working on cave and climate records.

speleothemschool.com →

Caving · 10+ years

Active speleologist for over a decade. The curiosity that drives my ML work on cave-derived climate records started underground, where you learn to read complex natural systems patiently and with respect for what's unknown.

07

Get in touch

Open to roles in climate-tech, energy transition and forecasting-heavy industries. Always happy to chat about ML, uncertainty quantification or applying analytics to messy real-world data.